Google Visualization Gadgets and the Top Five Oil Exporters

This a first attempt at using Google Visualization Gadgets for exploring the dataset for the top five oil exporters, more to come in the next few days.

“We had everything but money,” A Suggested Guidebook for the “Greater Depression”

By Jeffrey J. Brown

“We had everything but money” is a collection of first person accounts of the Great Depression in the United States. Although, it appears to be out of print, it is widely available online. I recommend it as a very good guidebook for our present circumstances, what many are calling the “Greater Depression.”

Here is a list of and a description of the chapters:

When the banks closed, our hearts opened
As tough times enveloped the nation, folks began to see their neighbors in a new, more loving light.

Braving the dirty 30's
Dust Bowl survivors recall how they overcame the worst drought in American history.

Looking for work
With more than 10 million people out of work, many families had to start over, move on or find a new way to make a living.

Beans, bacon and gravy
Simple meals were standard fare in most households, but the love with which they were prepared made them unforgettable.

Make it last, wear it out
Recycling isn't a new idea. In the 1930's it became a way of life, helping many to get by.

Cherished photos
Everyone treasures family photos, and none are more prized than these priceless snapshots from the Depression years.

How we got around
From the horse and buggy to the streetcar and trolley, "getting there" was half the fun--and usually an adventure.

Love and marriage
Whether couples met at school, through the mail or on a scavenger hunt, their stories prove that love really can conquer all.

How we had fun
Money may have been tight, but entertainment was never in short supply, from classic films to favorite radio shows to "homemade fun."

Christmases we remember
The best gifts are those that come from the heart. That's what makes these recollections of Depression holidays so special.


Here is an excerpt from Chapter One. It's a contemporaneous account written in the early Thirties. Sally Wall found it after her father died.

'I like the Depression'

No more prosperity for me. I have had more fun since the Depression started that ever had in my life. I had forgotten how to live, and what it meant to have real friends, and what it was like to eat, common, everyday food. Fact is, I was getting a little too high-hat.

It's great to drop into a store and feel that you can spend an hour, or 2, or 3, or even half a day just visiting not feel that you are wasting valuable time.

I am getting acquainted with my neighbours and following the biblical admonition to love them. Some of them had been living next door to me for three years; now we butcher hogs together.

I haven't been out to a party for months. My wife had dropped all of her clubs, and I believe we are falling in love all over again. I'm pretty well satisfied with my wife, and I think I will keep her.

I am feeling better since the Depression. I get more exercise because I walk to town and a lot of folks who used to drive Cadillacs are walking with me.

I am getting real, honest to goodness food now. Three years ago, we had filet of sole, crab Louie and Swiss steak with flour gravy. We had guinea hen and things called "gourmet" and "oriental." Now we eat sow bosom.

Three years ago, I never had time to go to church. I played checkers or baseball all day Sunday. Besides, there wasn't a preacher in Texas who could tell me anything. Now I'm going regularly and never miss a Sunday. If this Depression keeps on, I will be going to prayer meetings before too long.

Jeffrey J. Brown is an independent petroleum geologist in the Dallas, Texas area. His email address is westexas at aol.com.

Vehicle-Miles Driven at a Record Low

Calculatedrisks published this chart today:



The fall in Vehicle-Miles driven is unprecedented, no wonder crude oil is piling up in inventories. In the monthly data, It seems that there is a beginning of recovery so maybe prices will go back up at the end of the year.

Obama on Oil and Climate Change

Obama gave a speech on Energy this afternoon, his plan is aiming at helping the U.S. economy recover by building a green energy infrastructure as well enforcing new emissions standards for cars. Of course, there is no mention of Peak Oil, instead the U.S. foreign oil dependence is presented as a threat to America's national security.

Remarks by the President
on Jobs, Energy Independence, and Climate Change
East Room of the White House
January 26, 2009

Good morning. Before I begin today's announcement, I want to say a few words about the deepening economic crisis that we've inherited and the need for urgent action.

Over the last few days we've learned that Microsoft, Intel, United Airlines, Home Depot, Sprint Nextel, and Caterpillar are each cutting thousands of jobs. These are not just numbers on a page. As with the millions of jobs lost in 2008, these are working men and women whose families have been disrupted and whose dreams have been put on hold.

We owe it to each of them and to every, single American to act with a sense of urgency and common purpose. We can't afford distractions and we cannot afford delays. And that is why I look forward to signing an American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan that will put millions of Americans to work and lay the foundation for stable growth that our economy needs and that our people demand. These are extraordinary times and it calls for swift and extraordinary action.

At a time of such great challenge for America, no single issue is as fundamental to our future as energy. America's dependence on oil is one of the most serious threats that our nation has faced. It bankrolls dictators, pays for nuclear proliferation, and funds both sides of our struggle against terrorism. It puts the American people at the mercy of shifting gas prices, stifles innovation and sets back our ability to compete.

These urgent dangers to our national and economic security are compounded by the long-term threat of climate change, which if left unchecked could result in violent conflict, terrible storms, shrinking coastlines and irreversible catastrophe. These are the facts and they are well known to the American people -- after all, there is nothing new about these warnings. Presidents have been sounding the alarm about energy dependence for decades. President Nixon promised to make our energy -- our nation energy independent by the end of the 1970s. When he spoke, we imported about a third of our oil; we now import more than half.

Year after year, decade after decade, we've chosen delay over decisive action. Rigid ideology has overruled sound science. Special interests have overshadowed common sense. Rhetoric has not led to the hard work needed to achieve results. Our leaders raise their voices each time there's a spike in gas prices, only to grow quiet when the price falls at the pump.

Now America has arrived at a crossroads. Embedded in American soil and the wind and the sun, we have the resources to change. Our scientists, businesses and workers have the capacity to move us forward. It falls on us to choose whether to risk the peril that comes with our current course or to seize the promise of energy independence. For the sake of our security, our economy and our planet, we must have the courage and commitment to change.

It will be the policy of my administration to reverse our dependence on foreign oil, while building a new energy economy that will create millions of jobs. We hold no illusion about the task that lies ahead. I cannot promise a quick fix; no single technology or set of regulations will get the job done. But we will commit ourselves to steady, focused, pragmatic pursuit of an America that is free from our energy dependence and empowered by a new energy economy that puts millions of our citizens to work.

Today, I'm announcing the first steps on our journey toward energy independence, as we develop new energy, set new fuel efficiency standards, and address greenhouse gas emissions. Each step begins to move us in a new direction, while giving us the tools that we need to change.

First, we must take bold action to create a new American energy economy that creates millions of jobs for our people. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan before Congress places a down payment on this economy. It will put 460,000 Americans to work, with clean energy investments and double the capacity to generate alternative energy over the next three years. It will lay down 3,000 miles of transmission lines to deliver this energy to every corner of our country. It will save taxpayers $2 billion a year by making 75 percent of federal buildings more efficient. And it will save working families hundreds of dollars on their energy bills by weatherizing 2 million homes.

This is the boost that our economy needs, and the new beginning that our future demands. By passing the bill, Congress can act where Washington has failed to act over and over again for 30 years. We need more than the same old empty promises. We need to show that this time it will be different. This is the time that Americans must come together on behalf of our common prosperity and security.

Second, we must ensure that the fuel-efficient cars of tomorrow are built right here in the United States of America. Increasing fuel efficiency in our cars and trucks is one of the most important steps that we can take to break our cycle of dependence on foreign oil. It will also help spark the innovation needed to ensure that our auto industry keeps pace with competitors around the world.

We will start by implementing new standards for model year 2011 so that we use less oil and families have access to cleaner, more efficient cars and trucks. This rule will be a down payment on a broader and sustained effort to reduce our dependence on foreign oil. Congress has passed legislation to increase standards to at least 35 miles per gallon by 2020. That 40 percent increase in fuel efficiency for our cars and trucks could save over 2 million barrels of oil every day -- nearly the entire amount of oil that we import from the Persian Gulf.

Going forward, my administration will work on a bipartisan basis in Washington and with industry partners across the country to forge a comprehensive approach that makes our economy stronger and our nation more secure.

Third, the federal government must work with, not against, states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. California has shown bold and bipartisan leadership through its effort to forge 21st century standards, and over a dozen states have followed its lead. But instead of serving as a partner, Washington stood in their way. This refusal to lead risks the creation of a confusing and patchwork set of standards that hurts the environment and the auto industry.

The days of Washington dragging its heels are over. My administration will not deny facts, we will be guided by them. We cannot afford to pass the buck or push the burden onto the states. And that's why I'm directing the Environmental Protection Agency to immediately review the denial of the California waiver request and determine the best way forward. This will help us create incentives to develop new energy that will make us less dependent on oil that endangers our security, our economy, and our planet.

As we move forward, we will fully take into account the unique challenges facing the American auto industry and the taxpayer dollars that now support it. And let me be clear: Our goal is not to further burden an already struggling industry. It is to help America's automakers prepare for the future. This commitment must extend beyond the short-term assistance for businesses and workers. We must help them thrive by building the cars of tomorrow, and galvanizing a dynamic and viable industry for decades to come.

Finally, we will make it clear to the world that America is ready to lead. To protect our climate and our collective security, we must call together a truly global coalition. I've made it clear that we will act, but so too must the world. That's how we will deny leverage to dictators and dollars to terrorists. And that's how we will ensure that nations like China and India are doing their part, just as we are now willing to do ours.

It's time for America to lead, because this moment of peril must be turned into one of progress. If we take action, we can create new industries and revive old ones; we can open new factories and power new farms; we can lower costs and revive our economy. We can do that, and we must do that. There's much work to be done. There is much further for us to go.

But I want to be clear from the beginning of this administration that we have made our choice. America will not be held hostage to dwindling resources, hostile regimes, and a warming planet. We will not be put off from action because action is hard. Now is the time to make the tough choices. Now is the time to meet the challenge at this crossroad of history by choosing a future that is safer for our country, prosperous for our planet, and sustainable.

Those are my priorities, and they're reflected in the executive orders that I'm about to sign. Thank you so much for being here.

src: The White House Blog

A Simple Explanation for Rising Oil Prices, to an Average Price of About $100 in 2008: Importers Bidding for Declining Net Oil Exports

By Jeffrey J. Brown

My frequent co-author, Samuel Foucher, and I started warning, in January, 2006, about an imminent decline in world net oil exports. EIA data show that we are almost certainly going to see three years of world net oil exports below the 2005 rate, primarily because of collective declines by the top five net oil exporters—Saudi Arabia; Russia; Norway, Iran and the UAE—which account for about half of world net oil exports. Kenneth Deffeyes predicted that world crude oil production would peak in a range from 2004 to 2008, most likely in 2005. EIA show world crude oil production of about 74 mbpd (million barrels per day) in 2005, slightly less in 2006 and 2007, and 74 mbpd in 2008 (through September). Total liquids production is up slightly in 2008, which Matt Simmons attributes to increased natural gas liquids production, as the gas caps in many large oil fields are produced, in the last stages of depletion for these fields.

So, despite the fact that relative to 2005, we are going to almost certainly see three years of lower net oil exports, flat crude oil production and a slight increase in total liquids production, the conventional wisdom is that the increase in annual US oil prices from $57 in 2005 to about $100 in 2008 was due to “speculation,” while the recent sharp decline in monthly and daily oil prices was due to Peak Oilers being wrong about a near term peak in world oil production.

Part of the problem is that price information is instantaneous and accurate. Production data tend to be noisy (especially in the short term), delayed and subject to revision, so price, at least a falling price, is frequently used as a proxy for production (as noted above, rising prices are generally attributed to speculation, and not to fundamental supply/demand factors).

I have an alternative point of view. I believe that the increase in annual oil prices from 2005 to 2008 was largely due to importers bidding for declining net oil exports. As noted above, my co-author and I started warning about declining net oil exports in early 2006. Our most detailed work, a quantitative analysis of the top five net oil exporters was presented to ASPO-USA in 2007 and published in early 2008:

Our middle case is that the top five net oil exporters will collectively approach zero net oil exports around 2031, within a time frame from 2024 to 2039.

Our intermediate outlook is that the top five net oil exporters will be down to about 12 mbpd in 2015 (middle case) within a range from 7 mbpd to 18 mbpd, versus about 24 mbpd in 2005.

We have two years of EIA data for net oil exports from the top five, and we have monthly production data through September, 2008. The annual data for net oil exports from the top five are as follows:

2005	23.9 mbpd
2006	23.2
2007	22.0
2008	22.5*

mbpd= Million barrels per day. *Estimate based on data through 9/08


While we have evidence for a slight increase in net oil exports in 2008, it is to a level that is well below the 2005 rate, and other exporters in terminal decline, such as the UK and Indonesia, showed year over year increases, in their terminal decline phases.

What is interesting is a plot of average annual US oil prices versus annual net oil exports from the 2005 top five net oil exporters. Following is this graph, with oil prices on the vertical axis and with annual (EIA) net oil exports on the horizontal axis (this graph was inspired by similar world production graphs done by bloggers on The Oil Drum blog).

This graph shows, as one would expect, a strong correlation between rising oil prices and declining net oil exports. In my opinion, the rapid decline in monthly and daily oil prices in the latter months of 2008 was primarily due to the actual and to some extent, the perceived, decline in demand outpacing the long term decline in net oil exports—augmented by selling, forced and otherwise, of long oil positions, partly due to the contraction in credit.

I expect to see a combination of involuntary + voluntary reductions in net oil exports in 2009, which will probably cause the average annual oil price to exceed the average price of about $50 that the futures market is currently showing for 2009, and in my opinion there is a good chance that the average price in 2009 will exceed the average price of about $100 in 2008.

However, regardless of short term oil price fluctuations, the real problem for the economy is going to be after 2009. In my opinion, we will not have the volume of world net oil exports necessary to power a rebound in economic activity.

Instead of a desperate effort to keep our high consumption auto centric suburban way of life going, we need to be investing in things like rail transportation—especially electrified rail transportation, which can be powered by alternative energy sources like windpower.

However, this would force us to recognize that we live in a finite world, with finite fossil fuel resource. This is a difficult idea to sell since the finite world concept violates most people's concept of how the world works--which is that we can have an infinite rate of increase in our consumption of a finite fossil fuel resource base.

We can only hope for an outbreak of rational thinking in the months and years ahead.

Jeffrey J. Brown is an independent petroleum geologist in the Dallas, Texas area. His e-mail address is westexas @aol.com. The Net Oil Export slide was prepared by A. B. Silveus.

Jeff Brown Talking About Peak Exports

Two recent talks given my Jeff Brown this last summer:

Sandia National Labs (with slides): link

An Update on Mexico Export Land Model

Mexico is a good case study for the Export Land Model (ELM) and it seems that projections made in January 2006 are unfortunately still on track.

Figure 1. mbpd= millions of barrels per day, CO= crude oil + condensate, NGPL= Natural gas liquids. Rig counts from Baker Hughes. Click to Enlarge.
Imports are up by almost 150% since 2004 and it helped meet the domestic demand which is still increasing as predicted despite high gasoline prices:



Figure 2. data from PEMEX. Gasoline prices for PEMEX Premium.

Forecast	2005	2006	2007	2010	2015	Peak Date	Peak Value
Crude oil + NGL
Observed (PEMEX)	3.69	3.68	3.52	NA	NA	2004-02	3.90
IEA (WEO, 2004)	3.93	4.02	4.09	4.20	4.14	2010	4.20
EIA Low Prices (IEO, 2006)	3.90	3.94	3.98	4.13	4.54	2030-01	5.80
EIA Reference Case (IEO, 2006)	3.88	3.90	3.93	4.02	4.22	2030-01	5.10
EIA High Prices (IEO, 2006)	3.84	3.85	3.86	3.93	4.40	2015-01	4.40
Crude Oil + Lease Condensate
Observed (PEMEX)	3.27	3.25	3.12	NA	NA	2004-05	3.45
IEA (WEO, 2006)	3.30	3.28	3.23	3.10	3.10	2005	3.30
Logistic Low	3.36	3.23	3.08	2.61	1.83	1999	3.79
Logistic Medium	3.24	3.24	3.24	3.17	2.91	2006	3.24
Demand
IEA (WEO, 2006)	2.10	2.12	2.14	2.20	2.40	2030	3.10
Cantarell
Observed	1.91	1.63	1.50	NA	NA	2004-01	2.14
Logistic Cantarell	2.02	1.78	1.51	0.77	0.19	2003	2.28